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The world market in commodities in normally a well predictable and stable environment in which most factor are known and logical. One knows that it there is frost in Brazil one can expect coffee prices to swing up for a year and settle down the next season. Similarly the edible oil and grain markets are fairly stable and predictable.
The sugar market on the other hand is a highly volatile arena is which forunes are made and lost proitics are alleged and government and ministers are swept off due to unstable sugar prices. The equation is : Is this really true if so why an attempt is made here to shed some light on the scene and present a view as to why these cycles are present and what they cause.
The international sugar market has about 120 million tons of sugar being produced and consumed every year. Most of the sugar is consumed within producing areas except for traditional exporters like Australia, Thailand, and strangely the European Community which exports around five million tons with a great deal of subsidy to its farmers. In this markets a surplus or shortage of two million tons of production over consumption will mean a catastrophe. Most of the sugar is either consumed locally or is on long term committed contracts. The spot market is really thin and hence any minor swing will create a major impact on the market.